Executive Summary continued -
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Possible impact of GM technology on wheat grown in the UK
Key
profitability features of the crop
Profitability (as
measured by gross margins) in 2002 was within a range of £486/ha and
£607/ha. Wheat has generally been the most profitable combinable crop and
performs best when grown after a break crop (eg, oilseed rape). It
accounted for 48% of the UK arable cropping area in 2002.
Total variable costs in
2002 were within a range of £197/ha and £271/ha, of which herbicides
accounted for between 10% and 18% of costs and fungicides accounted for
between 20% and 26% of costs. Average yields in 2002 were about 8
tonnes/ha.
GM
traits of relevance to the UK
The main GM wheat traits
with commercial possibilities over the next ten years are fusarium
resistance and glyphosate tolerance. Their potential applicability,
adoption and impact on UK farming profitability are summarised in Tables a
and b. For further details the reader should read section 5.1 and
appendix 5.
Table a: Summary of possible farm level
economic impact of GM herbicide (glyphosate) tolerant wheat
|
Possible date for commercialisation in
the UK |
2008-2011 |
|
Impact on costs of production |
Premium control of weeds difficult and
expensive to control (eg, wild oats)
Reduced variable costs from lower
herbicide use costs could be savings of £23-£36/ha but will depend
on cost of technology (no benchmark available). Greatest benefit for
above average herbicide users. Limited empirical data to verify this
and no UK based research
Added crop flexibility removal of
difficult weeds and lower control costs over a rotation |
|
Impact on yield |
None expected largely yield neutral |
|
Impact on rotation |
Could offer greater scope for
continuous wheat growing (wheat being the most profitable combinable
crop) via improved weed control would however, still require
overcoming problems like take all disease in follow on wheat |
|
Facilitation of low/non tillage
practices |
May re-inforce this husbandry trend
which offers scope for lower energy use, less ploughing and higher
profitability |
Note: For consideration
of generic issues such as herbicide tolerant weed resistance, volunteers,
whether there is a market for GM wheat, non GM price differentials and
co-existence issues see sub-section above
Table b:
Summary of possible farm level economic impact of GM fusarium resistance
wheat in the UK
|
Possible date for commercialisation in
the UK |
2012-2014 |
|
Impact on costs of production |
Difficult to estimate as fungicides
used to control a range of diseases and incidence varies by location
and year. A 25% reduction in fungicide use could save £10/ha-£15/ha
on current usage |
|
Impact on yield |
Some yield loss still occurs even
though fungicides are used. A 5% improvement is thought possible.
This equates to a 0.4 to 0.45 tonnes/ha increase and a £23.2/ha to
£26.1/ha increase in gross revenue |
|
Improved quality of grain |
Mycotoxin levels in cereals are a
concern and presence outside prescribed limits can lead to downgrading
of supplies. Very difficult to evaluate as current incidence and
extent of downgrading or rejection of supplies is not known |
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