Executive Summary continued -
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Possible impact of GM technology on oilseed rape grown in the UK
Key
profitability features of the crop
Profitability (as
measured by gross margins) in 2002 was within a range of £506/ha and
£527/ha. Oilseed rape tends to be the profitable break crop grown in the
UK (excluding sugar beet) and is usually followed by wheat. It accounted
for about 10% of the total UK arable crop area in 2002.
Total variable costs in
2002 were within a range of £193/ha and £212/ha, of which herbicides
accounted for between 18% and 23% of costs. Average yield in 2002 was
about 3.4 tonnes/ha.
GM
traits of relevance to the UK
The main GM oilseed rape
traits likely to be commercialised in the next few years are GM derived
hybrid varieties, also containing herbicide tolerance (to glufosinate).
The potential applicability, adoption and impact on UK farming
profitability of this product is summarised in Table c. For further
details the reader should read section 5.2 and appendix 5.
Table c:
Summary of possible farm level economic impact of GM hybrid vigour and
herbicide tolerant (to glufosinate) oilseed rape
|
Possible date for commercialisation in
the UK |
2005-2008 |
|
Impact on costs of production |
May offer reduced variable costs from
lower herbicide use costs but this depends on baseline current costs
and number of glufosinate applications made. Current costs of
£36-£45/ha compare with possibilities of £21-£65/ha for glufosinate
use depending on volume of herbicide used, assumed price of herbicide
and number of applications. Using the assumptions presented in this
report, cost savings will only emerge if farmers use one application
or, if they use two applications, are above average spenders on
herbicides. These calculations also do not take into consideration
the cost of technology (see section 5.2 for illustration of a possible
cost). Overall, cost savings are only likely for a minority of users
and take up will be driven by other factors – see below |
|
Impact on yield |
Main source of farm level benefit.
Yield gain expected anywhere between 10% and 15%. This comes mostly
from the improved hybrid vigour but may also come from improved weed
control and reduced ‘knock-back’ experienced from existing herbicide
treatment of crops. A yield gain of 10% would result in an increase
in the gross margin of 9.5% relative to 2002 (+14% at a 15% yield
gain) |
|
Impact on rotation |
Possible benefits for subsequent crops
like wheat, especially as may offer improved control of difficult and
expensive to control weeds like black grass (which are resistant to a
number of herbicides). Could lead to savings across the rotation on
herbicide costs and reduced carry over of residual herbicides in the
soil (which may damage crop growth) |
|
Facilitation of low/non tillage
practices |
May re-inforce this husbandry trend
which offers scope for lower energy use, less ploughing and higher
profitability |
Note: For consideration
of generic issues such as herbicide tolerant weed resistance, volunteers,
whether there is a market for GM oilseed rape, non GM price differentials
and co-existence issues see sub-section above
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