Executive Summary continued -
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Possible impact of GM technology on potatoes grown in the UK
Key
profitability features of the crop
Profitability (as
measured by gross margins) in 2002 was within a range of £2,000 and
£2,683/ha.
It accounted for about 4% of the total UK arable crop area in 2002.
Total variable costs in
2002 were within a range of £1,720/ha and £1,870/ha for main crop
potatoes, of which herbicides accounted for between 3% and 4% of costs,
fungicides accounted for about 8% of variable costs and nematicides
accounted for about 14%-16% of variable costs. Average yields were about
44 tonnes/ha in 2002.
GM
traits of relevance to the UK
The main UK applicable GM
potato research is related to nematode resistance.
However, this research is still at a fairly fundamental level and is at
least ten years away from possible commercialisation. No analysis of
possible impacts on the UK potato grower has been provided because there
is no data ‘to work on’ from trials, as no field scale trials examining
impacts on yields, costs of production etc have yet been established.
Possible impact of GM technology on forage maize grown in the UK
Key
profitability features of the crop
As forage maize is mostly
consumed on-farm, the key variables influencing whether it is grown are
not profitability but nutritional value relative to other forage crops and
the cost of production. In recent years the area planted to the crop has
increased to about 100,000 hectares (relative to for example about 420,000
ha for oilseed rape), highlighting its cost competitiveness with
alternatives such as whole wheat and permanent pasture.
GM
traits of relevance to the UK
The main UK applicable GM
forage maize research has been related to herbicide tolerant (to
glufosinate) forage maize. The potential applicability, adoption and
impact on UK farming profitability of this product is summarised in Table
e. For further details the reader should read section 5.5 and appendix
5.
Table e:
Summary of possible farm level economic impact of GM herbicide tolerant
(to glufosinate) forage maize
|
Possible date for commercialisation in
the UK |
2005-2008 |
|
Impact on costs of production |
The range of current herbicide costs is
between £15/ha to £42.2/ha. The likely cost under the glufosinate
tolerant crop is (one application) £25/ha to £30.44/ha rising to
between £54-£60.88/ha for two applications. However, the current ‘
alternative’ costs are likely to rise because the main herbicide
currently used (atrazine) may be banned. If so, costs could rise to
about £55.01/ha. On the basis of these costs, glufosinate tolerant
forage maize would provide the largest cost savings for farmers who
currently use two sprays and could revert to one application of
glufosinate (also it would be attractive if atrazine were to be
banned). Where farmers would need to use two applications of
glufosinate the cost savings would be significantly reduced and may be
marginal. |
|
Impact on yield |
Current herbicides used may adversely
affect yield via ‘knock back’ (eg, slow down rate of seed
germination). Detailed data is not available on this impact but the
use of a post-emergent contact broad-spectrum herbicide, such as
glufosinate, that does not “knock-back” the plant could increase
yields by between 10% and 20%. A 10% increase in yield equates to an
additional 1.19 tonnes of maize dry matter which costs £46.70 (based
on £39.38/t X 1.19) to produce.
Given the limited nature of the
possible cost saving benefit identified above, take up of this
technology in forage maize will probably depend on its ability to
deliver the yield benefits suggested above. If not, and after taking
into consideration the technology fee, the benefits will be limited to
only some farmers. It may necessitate a fairly low technology fee
and/or be accompanied by a reduction in the herbicide price (of
glufosinate) to facilitate take up. This analysis is however
speculative and is not based on empirical evidence of herbicide
tolerant forage maize grown in the UK (as no publicly available
empirical evidence was identified). |
Notes.
1. For
consideration of generic issues such as herbicide tolerant weed
resistance, volunteers and co-existence issues see sub-section above
2. In
relation to whether there is a market for GM forage maize, as all of the
crop is fed to livestock, there is likely to be a reasonable market for GM
forage maize
Herbicide tolerance, insect resistant (to Colorado Potato Beetle: CPB)
and virus resistant potatoes have all previously been commercialised
in North America (or in the case of herbicide tolerance were close to
commercialisation). However, there is little prospect of these
products coming to the market in the UK over the next few years
because a) the original technology provider, Monsanto has withdrawn
from the potato sector, b) CPB is not a problem in the UK, so there
would be no market and c) weeds are not a major problem to UK potato
growers (relative to nematodes, viruses and fungal diseases).
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