Strong anti-GM technology
sentiment in some parts of Europe has been influencing the food and feed
supply chains across Europe for 3-4 years. This has contributed to the
development of distinct non GM derived food and feed markets and
effectively halted the EU wide approvals process for GMOs.
On the 17th
October 2002 new rules governing the safety approval of field trials and
the growing of genetically modified (GM) crops came into force in the
European Union (EU). Many people believe that this legislation is an
important new step in facilitating the wider commercialization of GM crops
in Europe.
The new directive
(2001/18/EC) approved in April 2001 upgrades existing legislation on crops
which have been genetically altered, by more clearly laying down
requirements; for providing information to the public; the monitoring of
possible long term effects on the environment and human health; and the
labelling and tracing of GMOs. This legislation (and further regulations
on labelling and traceability likely to be approved in the coming months),
should lead to the better functioning of markets as European farmers will,
for the first time, be able to choose whether to plant GM crops or not
based on their benefits/costs relative to the market incentives offered in
the non GM derived alternative.
The new legislation should
also pave the way for European farmers and supply chain users to plan for
their introduction over the coming years. The possibility of increased
cultivation of GM crops in Europe will have major implications for all
stakeholders in the European food/feed chains. Experience from the USA
and South America has demonstrated that GM crop technology can be adopted
at an extremely fast rate resulting in changes to farm and crop protection
practices, cropping systems, agrochemical prices, food/feed distribution
and prices.
Our approach will be to
take into consideration the respective merits of GM crops and non GM crops
and provide an objective and balanced assessment of the likely future
development of GM crops in Europe.
The report will support
decision-making/strategic planning and provide a central resource on the
key issues, the products in development, the timetables and the potential
impacts. The report will be researched and written by PG Economics and
follows on from the successful and widely taken up series of Crop Specific
Reports ‘GM Crops: economic and strategic issues through the food chain’
and forward looking reports on global markets for GM soybeans &
derivatives and GM rice.
PG Economics is publishing
this report to provide GM technology providers, input suppliers, the
animal feed industries, farmers, oilseed crushers, food manufacturers,
slaughterers/processors, distributors, traders, retailers, consumer groups
and lobby groups with sound analysis of the economic and market dynamics
that are developing and will shape the future adoption of GM crops in
Europe.
The report provides
insights into the economic and commercial reasons why GM technology has
been so rapidly adopted and how this will affect the European marketplace
for all the major user sectors. This will assist the planning and
communication of business strategies in global, European and national
agricultural and food markets. Core strategic market information on
arable crop-specific biotechnology will be presented and specific
economic, market and strategic issues will be analysed.
Senior management and key decision takers need to have answers to the
following crucial questions that will be addressed in the report:
Ø
What GM crops are currently being grown in Europe?
Ø
What GM crops are under development for the European farmer and
when will they be introduced?
Ø
Why have many farmers in North and South America and parts of
Europe rapidly taken up planting of GM crops?
Ø
What has been the impact on cropping patterns, distribution and
trading?
Ø
What are the key new rules & regulations impacting on GM crops and
what will they mean in practice?
Ø
How will the markets for non GM derived products develop?
Ø
What will be the balance between GM and non GM derived markets and
crop plantings?
Ø
Who will be the winners and losers?
A description of the
current status of GM crops under development including profiles on; the
major players, research organisations, European trials and pipeline
products. This will focus on agronomic traits like pest/disease
resistance and herbicide tolerance. The objective of this section will be
to build up a picture which demonstrates the current and future direction
of GM crops for European agriculture and will focus on:
Ø
What GM crops are currently being grown in Europe?
Ø
What GM crops are under development for the European grower and
when will they be introduced?
Ø
What GM crop commodities are being imported into Europe and what
can be anticipated in the future?
Part 2:
The regulatory environment
An overview of the key
regulations/rules affecting the commercialisation of GM crops in Europe.
This will include:
Ø
Deliberate Release Directive 2001/18/EC
Ø
Seeds Directive (SANCO/1542/02 – presence of GM seeds in seed of
conventional varieties)
Ø
Environmental Liability Directive (CM (2002) 17 final, COM (2001)
182 final
Ø
COM (2001) 425 Final: proposal for a regulation on GM food and feed
labelling
Ø
COM (2001) 1821 Final: proposal for a regulation on traceability of
GMOs and products derived from them
An objective
presentation and assessment of the evidence to date on the impact of the
technology on farm costs, revenues and pesticide use. This part of the
report will focus on:
Ø
Global producing countries covering GM and non-GM areas planted,
production levels
Ø
Reasons why farmers have adopted the technology
Ø
The impact on costs of production, husbandry practices, revenues
and income
Ø
Effects on pesticide use
Ø
Other impacts
An examination of market
developments including:
Ø
Existing markets and sizes
Ø
Key features: price differentials, tolerances and where in the
supply chain the cost is borne
Ø
The future: products/sectors, market sizes, price differentials,
price signals to farmers
A forward-looking
assessment of GM crops in Europe:
Ø
Arable crops where GM take up in Europe is likely to be
greatest/fastest
Ø
Arable crops where GM take up will be lowest/slowest
Ø
Sectors where non GM demand will be sustained, developed or may
decline
Ø
The winners and losers in the European marketplace
The report has been
principally researched and written by two of the directors of PG
Economics:
An economist who has 16
years experience of providing economic & market analysis & consulting
services to both private and public sector customers. He has in-depth
knowledge of the markets and supply chain developments in many sectors
including cereals, oilseeds and processed product derivatives (eg, animal
feed, oils, meals/proteins). He has considerable experience and
understanding of technology change issues, policy issues and impact on
markets, especially relating to European Community Agricultural/Rural
policy and the WTO. He has recently written papers on market dynamics for
biotech verses non-biotech products, GMO identity preservation and
segregation system economics and is author of the first detailed
examination of the farm level impact of commercially grown GM crops (bt
maize in Spain) in Europe.
An agricultural economist with 17 years experience in
the agricultural biotechnology industry and in consultancy. Peter
previously worked at the Agricultural Genetics Company for 12 years in
project management, business planning and development. He has a good
understanding of technology and its application in agricultural and food
markets. He has written and completed many market research projects on the
market development and exploitation of agricultural biotechnology over the
last 5 years. He has recently undertaken research on potential new GMO
product development in a variety of crops including soybeans, oilseed
rape, wheat, barley, maize and rice.
This report will be published by the end of
January 2003 and can be purchased for £795.00. Pre-publication orders
received before the 30th November 2002 are offered at a 15%
discount - £675.75. An acrobat (electronic) version is also available for
those wishing to make the report available to multiple users within their
organisation: price £2,400.00 (£2,000 if ordered by 30th
November 2002).
